How Much Is Turkish Ceyrek With Dollar Money

Unlicensed Requires Authentication Published by De Gruyter August x, 2018

Google Trends and Structural Exchange Rate Models for Turkish Lira–US Dollar Exchange Charge per unit

Levent Bulut and Tin Dogan

Abstract

In this paper, we use Google Trends data to proxy macro fundamentals that are related to 2 conventional structural determination of commutation rate models: purchasing power parity model and the budgetary exchange rate determination model. Nosotros assess forecasting performance of Google Trends based models against random walk null on Turkish Lira–United states of america Dollar exchange rate for the period of Jan 2004 to August 2015. We offer a three-step methodology for query option for macro fundamentals in Turkey and the U.s.a.. In out-of-sample forecasting, results show better performance against no-change random walk predictions for specifications both when we utilise Google Trends data equally the only commutation rate predictor or augment it with exchange rate fundamentals. We also observe that Google Trends data has limited predictive power when used in year-on-year growth rate format.

Funding statement: This piece of work was supported past the Scientific and Technological Research Council of Turkey (TUBITAK), Grant Number: 115C089

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Published Online: 2018-08-10

Source: https://www.degruyter.com/document/doi/10.1515/rmeef-2017-0026/html?lang=en

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